The economic policies need to be adjusted in 2009 so as to encourage mainly the restructuring process of Romania's economy and to allow for a comeback to a healthy advance of the gross domestic product (GDP), declared for NewsIn Adrian Vasilescu, advisor to the the central lender (BNR) governor.
Vasilescu
stressed that the central lender uses a mix of four economic policies:
the monetary policy, the fiscal policy, the salary policy and the
restructuring policy.
The
BNR governor Mugur Isarescu declared yesterday that it is obvious the
economic adjustment so far was pretty big and tends to become
excessive.
“The
main process of adjustment regards the structure of the economy. The
dynamics of the added value in constructions of 32.5 percent in the
first quarter of 2008, 33.9 percent in the second quarter, 29 percent
in the third quarter and 19 percent in the last quarter compared to the
dynamics in the processing industry which assures Romania's exports of
only 5.4 percent in the first quarter last year, 6.2 percent in the
second quarter, 3.1 percent in the third quarter and -7.7 percent in
the fourth quarter point to an inadequate structure of the economy,”
explained Vasilescu.
President
Traian Basescu declared yesterday in Prague that at the moment there
are no signs of an economic side-slip and the decline could be stopped
in the third quarter this year.
Basescu
added that the second quarter will not probably be any better, but he
expressed hope that during the third trimester the decline will be
stopped.
“The
rises in the first three quarters of 2008 clearly showed an overheating
of the economy, which calls for a correction of the current account
deficit. On the other hand, the external deficit correction is so far
excessive,” explained the BNR governor advisor.
According
to estimates, the current account gap can be adjusted this year to 6
percent of the GDP from 12.3 percent in 2008. The officials prognosis,
agreed upon with the International Monetary Fund, is of 7.5 percent of
the GDP.
Romania's
economy grew by 7.1 percent last year, while the odds are that this
year it will shrink by 4 percent or even more, after it saw a 6.2
percent decline in the first quarter.
Vasilescu
also pointed to the need to compress the budget gap below 3 percent of
the GDP, a level imposed by the European Union. Last year the internal
deficit went beyond 5 percent and the inflation was also unnaturally
high, despite a year-on-year slow down.
The central bank set about to channel the inflation rate towards the target of 3.5 percent give or take one percentage point.
