Romania's Forecast Commission (CNP) revised downwards inflation estimate for 2009, from 5.8 percent to 5.5 percent, and raised it from 3.5 to 3.7 percent for next year, according to data published in the fall prognosis.
Estimates for the years to come remain the same, at 3.2 percent in 2011, 2.8 percent in 2012, 2.5 percent in 2013 and 2.3 percent in 2014, reflecting a mild downtrend of consumer prices, as Romania should be ready to adopt the single European currency on January 1, 2015.
Prices should climb slightly in the industry and constructions this year, while those in the agriculture sector will fall, CNP estimates. Thus, industrial products prices will grow an average 2.3 percent this year, next to the ones in constructions, while those from agriculture will reduce 5.2 percent.
In 2010, prices should resume growth, only to temper in the following years.
The annual rate of inflation lowered to 4.96 percent in August, below expectations, while consumer prices slipped 0.19 percent versus July, following cheaper food-stuff and a slight advance of prices for services and non food products, according to data of the National Statistics Institute (INS).
Such a low level of inflation was last reached in August 2007, when the annual index of consumer prices stood at 4.96 percent.
Romania's Central Bank (BNR) targets a 3.5 percent inflation this year, plus or minus one percentage point, and the last prognosis indicates the level of inflation at 4.3 percent at year-end, revised slightly downwards from the previous estimates. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also deems Romania’s inflation will stand at 4.3 percent at the end of 2009.
BNR also slashed inflation prognosis for the end of 2010, from 2.8 to 2.6 percent, as the target for the end of next year was settled at 3.5 percent, take or leave one percentage point.
As for the evolution of the national currency versus the euro, CNP maintained the spring estimates. The commission foresees an average exchange rate of 4.25 lei per euro this year and of 4.20 lei per euro in 2010. The exchange rate should than lower to 4.17 lei per euro in 2011, 4.12 lei per euro in 2012, 4.07 lei per euro in 2013 and 4.03 lei per euro in 2014.